Sunday, 11 July 2010

at least from my non-engineering, more common-sense-orientated side of me

Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero.
-David R. Ellis-

There are so many things to blog about but I'm feeling so lazy to say anything here.

Okay, so today we went for a buffet lunch at some Japanese restaurant at Jurong Point; don't quite remember the name of the restaurant, though I DO  remember the oh-so-expensive cost of $30.90++.

Okay, so maybe it isn't that expensive, but I'm broke.

I spent $300 on Levi's, $200 on my Altec Lansing wireless earphones, and another $85 on my lomo camera. And I haven't even had my first month's pay yet. *ouch*

Anyways. We ate, and ate, and ate. LOL. Sorry. Not much of a food reviewer. In short, it was a decent meal. I wouldn't say it was great - heck, what would you expect from a $30 buffet - but at least they had decent food.

Goofed around with my new lomo camera a bit.
I think I look good with my camera. I should be a photographer. LOL.

After lunch, we went book shopping. Can you believe it - Zhi Vern decides to take up a new hobby: READING!!

LOL-NESS.

So we went to the Popular book store, where we were randomly browsing when I saw this particular book which caught my attention. 


 50 Psychology Ideas You Really Need To Know.

I picked it up, opened up a random page, and there I was, on some chapter about gambling. Something about the 50-50 chance and how people misunderstand it and give themselves the wrong idea.
Here's a simple question to further clarify:

Imagine a fictional town with 1000 families, all of the families have 6 children. Given two scenarios:

Scenario A: 3 of the children are girls and the other 3 are boys.
Scenario B: all 6 of the children are boys.

Which scenario is more probable to occur, when a family is randomly picked out from that town?

I want you to think and give your honest answer before scrolling down.
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Ready?

According to the book, when this question was posed to some people of higher education, surprisingly, more than 50% of them answered Scenario A.

The correct answer would be that both Scenario A and Scenario B have the same probability. Why? 

It would make sense to think that (heck, if I were in that situation, I would think this way too) if you already had given birth to 10 children whom all are boys, you would think that there should be a 99% chance that your 11th pregnancy would result in a girl.

Many people have made that common mistake. In fact, the chances that your 11th pregnancy is a girl is only a 50% chance.

In fact, in each birth, there is a 50-50 chance that either a boy or a girl would be born, and each birth is individual of all the other births. 

Interesting, huh?

But still. I think - at least from my non-engineering, more common-sense-orientated side of me - its pretty hard to believe.

Ah, the ironies of the world.

Right, I'll have to stop thinking now, it's a Sunday night *gasp*, which means it'll be Monday tomorrow *oh the horror*, and I'm gonna die coz my deadline is supposed to be on Monday but I have not done anything yet.

I'll have to take my job more seriously. =(

11 comments:

wh said...

i came to this only after i answered in fb and waited long for the answer....

and i am a genius! or at least a born engineer/scientist...wahahhaa......
so did u get tat book?

raedarling said...

haha oklo u genius lo... lol i wanted to get the book 1 actually. but i didnt coz its $27 and i boh lui liao. but now abit regret din buy... maybe nexttime i will buy it la. hehe

sw said...

would u borrow me if u bought the book? :p
haha~ nice blog~

zv said...

*ehem*
my new hobby very "xia sui" you meh?
btw, you only spent S$585 lar.. not even 50% of your salary yet.. so
feel free to spend sumore.. wahahaha

raedarling said...

@sw yea sure i can lend u. hehe. i think maybe i will buy it next month wen i get my 1st salary...lol

@zv no its not xiaxui, juz very funny =)

wh said...

lend me too!thanks!

eTHaNe said...

YEAH!!!
my answer is 50-50!!! WOOHOO~~~

vern your hobby is good!!!
let's do it together!!! ^.^

raedarling said...

seems like this blog got alot comments...lol. why dun all LG share money buy tat book, n it will becme LG property. then logistics can keep it ^^

ethane, my ans is oso 50-50 lo...is not called smart lo...its called "a very basic thing tat uni student should know". hahahaha

zv said...

walao so many comments
Rae vy happy liao coz finally she didn't get ignored.. lol

Anonymous said...

I would like to exchange links with your site www.blogger.com
Is this possible?

raedarling said...

@ anonymous , sure i would like to exchange links with u...but first i need to know ur identity and ur link right? haha